W. Brian Arthur



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Some Selected Papers


Complexity Economics

“Economics in Nouns and Verbs"in Jnl of Econ Behavior and Organization, 2023. (Alternative title: “Mathematical Language Shapes how we Understand the Economy,”) Pdf

“Foundations of Complexity Economics.” Nature Reviews Physics, 3, 136-45, 2021. Pdf

“Complexity Economics: an Introduction” (with Eric Beinhocker and Allison Stanger). In Complexity Economics, Santa Fe Inst Press, 2021. Pdf

“Complexity Economics: Why does Economics Need this New Approach?” In Complexity Economics, Santa Fe Inst Press, 2021.Pdf

“Some Thoughts on Agent-based Modeling and the Role of Computation in Economics." to appear in Handbook of Complexity Economics, P. Chen, W. Elsner, A. Pyka (eds.) Routledge, 2022. Pdf

“Simple Dynamics with Rich Implications: an introduction to Kristian Lindgren's paper Evolutionary Phenomena in Simple Dynamics," to appear in Foundational Papers in Complexity Science, ed. David Krakauer, Santa Fe Inst Press, 2022. Pdf

“Kenneth Arrow and Nonequilibrium Economics,” Quantitative Finance, Jan 2019. Pdf

"Complexity Economics: A New Framework for Economic Thought," in Complexity and the Economy, W. B. Arthur, ed., Oxford Univ Press, 2014. Pdf

"All Systems will be Gamed: Exploitive Behavior in Economic and Social Systems," in Complexity and the Economy, W. B. Arthur, ed., Oxford Univ Press, 2014. Pdf

"Do Markets Lead Always to Best Outcomes? A Comment on Neil Kay's paper," Research Policy, to appear, 2013. Pdf

"Agent-based Modeling and Out-of-Equilibrium Economics," Handbook of Computational Economics, L. Tesfatsion, ed., 2006. Pdf

"Complexity and the Economy," Science, 2 April 1999, 284, 107-109. Pdf

“Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectations in an Artificial Stock Market,” with J.H. Holland, B. LeBaron, R. Palmer, and P. Tayler, Economic Notes, 1997. Reprinted in The Economy as an Evolving Complex System II. Edited (with S. Durlauf and D. Lane), Addison-Wesley, 1997. Pdf

"Bounded Rationality and Inductive Behavior (the El Farol Problem), American Economic Review, 84,406-411, 1994. Pdf

"The End of Certainty in Economics," Appeared in Einstein Meets Magritte, D. Aerts, et al. eds. 1999, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Holland. Reprinted in The Biology of Business, J.H. Clippinger, ed., 1999, Jossey-Bass Publishers. Pdf

"Process and Emergence in the Economy," introduction to the book The Economy as an Evolving Complex System II, edited by Arthur, Durlauf, and Lane, Addison Wesley, Reading, Mass, 1997.    Pdf

"Cognition: The Black Box of Economics," The Complexity Vision and the Teaching of Economics, David Colander, ed., Edward Elgar Publishing, Northampton, Mass, 2000. Pdf

"Complexity in Economic and Financial Markets," Complexity, 1, 20-25, 1995.   Pdf

"El Farol and the Minority Game." Foreword to The Minority Game by Challet, Marsili, and Zhang. 2004. Pdf

Interview with R. Delorme and G. Hodgson on Complexity Economics, EAEPE, 2002. Pdf



"The Evolution of Technology in a Simple Computer Model." with W. Polak, Complexity, May 2006. Pdf

“How we became Modern,” in The Chronicles of Evolution, S. Shuzhen and B. Seet, eds. Wildtype Books, Singapore, 2018

"The Structure of Invention," Research Policy, 2007. Pdf

"What is Technology and How does it Evolve?" Book excerpt from The Nature of Technology, NY. Acad. of Sciences, 2009. Pdf


Increasing Returns

"Positive Feedbacks in the Economy," Scientific American, Feb. 1990.   Pdf

"Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns and Lock-in by Historical Events," Economic Journal, 99, 106-131,1989.   Pdf

"Increasing Returns and the New World of Business,"Harvard Business Review, July-Aug 1996.    Pdf 

Preface to the book: Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy, Univ. of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, 1994.   Pdf



“Algorithms and the Shift in Modern Science,” Beijer Institute Discussion Paper 269, Swedish Academy of Sciences, 2020. Pdf