W. Brian Arthur



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Some Selected Papers


Complexity Economics

"Complexity Economics: A New Framework for Economic Thought," in Complexity and the Economy, W. B. Arthur, ed., Oxford Univ Press, 2014. Pdf

"All Systems will be Gamed: Exploitive Behavior in Economic and Social Systems," in Complexity and the Economy, W. B. Arthur, ed., Oxford Univ Press, 2014. Pdf

"Do Markets Lead Always to Best Outcomes? A Comment on Neil Kay's paper," Research Policy, to appear, 2013. Pdf

"Agent-based Modeling and Out-of-Equilibrium Economics," Handbook of Computational Economics, L. Tesfatsion, ed., 2006. Pdf

“Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectations in an Artificial Stock Market,” with J.H. Holland, B. LeBaron, R. Palmer, and P. Tayler, Economic Notes, 1997. Reprinted in The Economy as an Evolving Complex System II. Edited (with S. Durlauf and D. Lane), Addison-Wesley, 1997. Pdf

"Bounded Rationality and Inductive Behavior (the El Farol Problem), American Economic Review, 84,406-411, 1994. Pdf

"The End of Certainty in Economics," Appeared in Einstein Meets Magritte, D. Aerts, et al. eds. 1999, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Holland. Reprinted in The Biology of Business, J.H. Clippinger, ed., 1999, Jossey-Bass Publishers. Pdf

"Process and Emergence in the Economy," introduction to the book The Economy as an Evolving Complex System II, edited by Arthur, Durlauf, and Lane, Addison Wesley, Reading, Mass, 1997.    Pdf

"Cognition: The Black Box of Economics," The Complexity Vision and the Teaching of Economics, David Colander, ed., Edward Elgar Publishing, Northampton, Mass, 2000. Pdf

"Complexity in Economic and Financial Markets," Complexity, 1, 20-25, 1995.   Pdf

"El Farol and the Minority Game." Foreword to The Minority Game by Challet, Marsili, and Zhang. 2004. Pdf

Interview with R. Delorme and G. Hodgson on Complexity Economics, EAEPE, 2002. Pdf

"Complexity and the Economy," Science, 2 April 1999, 284, 107-109. Pdf

Review of  "The Economy as an Evolving Complex System II.," W. B Arthur, S. Durlauf, and D. A. Lane, (Eds.), Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1997.  By Gerald Silverberg, Maastricht. Pdf



"The Evolution of Technology in a Simple Computer Model." with W. Polak, Complexity, May 2006. Pdf

"The Structure of Invention," Research Policy, 2007. Pdf

"What is Technology and How does it Evolve?" Book excerpt from The Nature of Technology, NY. Acad. of Sciences, 2009. Pdf


Increasing Returns

"Positive Feedbacks in the Economy," Scientific American, Feb. 1990.   Pdf

"Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns and Lock-in by Historical Events," Economic Journal, 99, 106-131,1989.   Pdf

"Increasing Returns and the New World of Business,"Harvard Business Review, July-Aug 1996.    Pdf 

Preface to the book: Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy, Univ. of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, 1994.   Pdf